THE SOCIOECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL NICHE OF PROTECTED AREAS REVEALS GLOBAL CONSERVATION GAPS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Mouillot D., Velez L., Albouy C., Casajus N., Claudet J., Delbar V., Devillers R., Letessier T.B., Loiseau N., Manel M., Mannocci L., Meeuwig J., Mouquet N., Nuno A., OConnor L., Parravicini P., Renaud J., Seguin R.,Troussellier T. & Thuiller W. (2024).

Nature Communications 15:9007. DOI:10.1038/s41467-024-53241-1

Here, using fourteen socioeconomic and environmental factors, we characterize the multidimensional niche of terrestrial and marine protected areas, which we use to accurately establish, at the global scale, whether a particular location has preconditions favorable for protected area establishment. We reveal that protected areas, particularly the most restrictive ones, over aggregate where human development and the number of nongovernmental organizations are high. Based on the spatial distribution of vertebrates and the likelihood to convert nonprotected areas into strictly protected areas, we identify potential versus unrealistic conservation gains on land and sea, which we define as areas of high vertebrate diversity that are, respectively, favorable and unfavorable to protected area establishment. Where protected areas are unrealistic, alternative strategies such as other effective area based conservation measures or privately protected areas, could deliver conservation outcomes.

Potential and unrealistic conservation gains for terrestrial and marine vertebrates. The x axis represents conservation gains, with low gains on the left (bottom ranked unprotected areas) and high gains on the right (top-ranked unprotected areas), based on species range size coverage for birds, mammals (a), and fish (b). The y axis distinguishes between potential conservation gains (likely to be protected) and unrealistic gains (unlikely to be protected), considering the social environmental context. Global maps show established protected areas in green, with potential conservation gains depicted in dark blue and unrealistic gains in dark red. These colors reflect the relative likelihood of unprotected areas becoming protected, based on 14 social-environmental factors and Random Forest models. The average relative likelihood of protected area establishment per country is illustrated for both land (c) and sea (d).

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OTHER TOPICS: Aesthetics of Biodiversity, Biogeography, Macroecology & Ecophylogenetics, Experimental Evolution, Functional Biogeography, Functional Rarity, Nature for Future, Metacommunities, Metaecosystems, Reviews and Synthesis, Trophic Biogeography & Metaweb