Albouy, C., Leprieur, F., Le Loch, F., Mouquet N., Meynard, C.N., Douzery, E.J.P. and Mouillot, D. (2015).

Ecography, 38, 681-689, doi: 10.1111/ecog.01254

Key message : Here we forecasted the potential effect of climate warming on the phylogenetic and functional components of coastal Mediterranean fish biodiversity. To do so, we used species distribution models to project the potential distribution of 230 coastal fish species by the end of the 21st century based on the IPCC A2 scenario implemented with the Mediterranean climatic model NEMOMED8. From these projections, we assessed the changes in phylogenetic (PD) and functional diversity (FD) of fish assemblages at multiple spatial scales using a dated molecular phylogeny and an extensive functional trait database. At the scale of the entire Mediterranean Sea, the projected extinctions of 40 coastal fish species would lead to a concomitant erosion of PD and FD (13.6 and 3%, respectively). However, a null model revealed that species loss at this scale would not lead to a disproportionate erosion of PD and FD. Similar results were found when considering fish assemblages at the grid cell scale. Indeed, at this scale, the projected changes in species richness would lead to unexpected losses of PD and FD for localized and small areas only. A disproportionate erosion of PD under climate warming was only forecasted when analyzing fish assemblages at an intermediate spatial scale, namely the Mediterranean marine ecoregions.

Mediterranean maps showing the net differences in: (a) mean sea surface temperature; (b) fish species richness; (c) fish phylogenetic diversity; (d) fish functional diversity between the baseline scenario (1961-1980) and the future time period (2080-2099) predicted for the continental shelf of the Mediterranean Sea according the A2 scenario implemented in the NEMOMED8 climatic model. Signifi cance of the change in phylogenetic (e) or functional diversity (f) according to a null model. The + symbol indicates that the changes in phylogenetic or functional diversity are significantly greater than expected by the null model, whereas the - symbol indicates that observed differences in phylogenetic or functional diversity are significantly lower than expected by the null model. ns indicates that the changes in phylogenetic or functional diversity are not significantly different from that expected by the null model.

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OTHER TOPICS: Aesthetics of Biodiversity, Biodiversity & Ecosystem Functioning, Biogeography, Macroecology & Ecophylogenetics, Experimental Evolution, Functional Biogeography, Functional Rarity, Metacommunities, Metaecosystems, Reviews and Synthesis, Trophic Biogeography & Metaweb